Chapter 3 · Video 5

From question to hypothesis

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Slide 1

From question to hypothesis

Slide 2
Leary, 2012

A good research question is answerable

It addresses a research problem — a gap in our knowledge
'Answerable' does not mean easy to answer
Just possible to answer
Slide 3

"Do mosquitoes have an afterlife?"

This represents a gap in our knowledge
But we don't have any empirical means for finding an answer
A fine question to pose to my kids; a poor research question
Slide 4

FINER is a checklist for a question you already have

Feasible · Interesting · Novel · Ethical · Relevant
Writing good research questions takes practice
Use this to evaluate the ones you've written
Slide 5

Feasible

Some questions take too long, cost too much, or need too many participants
Others demand skills or equipment that you do not have
A good question is feasible for YOU, with the resources at your disposal
Slide 6

Interesting, and Novel

Without an interesting question, you won't get funding
Without sustained interest, you might not finish — and timelines are long
Replication matters, but most funding goes to questions that fill a gap
Slide 7

Ethical, and Relevant

"Don't be evil" is a minimum bar for research with human subjects
You are responsible for shielding participants from harm
And the answer should move your field forward
Slide 8

PICO

P — Patient, Population, or Problem
I — Intervention, Prognostic Factor, or Exposure
C — Comparison
O — Outcome
Slide 9
P — Population or Problem

Define the target population, or the problem to be solved

I like to include both
Malaria infections — the problem
Among children under 5 around the Lake Victoria basin in Kenya
Slide 10
I — Intervention or Exposure

Provision of insecticide-treated bed nets

Outside a trial, this could be an exposure that raises risk, such as travel to a malaria endemic region
It could also be a prognostic factor that predicts mortality in severe cases
Slide 11
C — Comparison

The comparator is a critical aspect of your question

Bed nets compared to another intervention, such as indoor spraying?
Treated bed nets compared to untreated nets? Nets compared to nothing?
Or a descriptive question, with no comparator at all
Slide 12
O — Outcome

Outcomes are the specific targets of our investigation

Here, parasitaemia
The presence of malaria parasites in the blood
Slide 13

Four elements, combined into a single research question

P — children under 5 around the Lake Victoria basin in Kenya
I and C — insecticide-treated nets versus untreated nets
O — preventing parasitaemia
PICO works beautifully for intervention questions — the book has others
Slide 14

A hypothesis is a tentative explanation or prediction

It can be tested with data
In its simplest form, it states what you expect to find
"Insecticide-treated bed nets reduce malaria infection rates in children under five"
Slide 15

Not all research requires a hypothesis

Descriptive studies often don't have one — they characterize what exists
Qualitative research frequently generates hypotheses rather than testing them
Exploratory work looks for patterns without preconceived expectations
Slide 16

So when do you need one?

When your goal is causal inference
When you're testing a specific prediction derived from theory
Or when you want to examine an association
Does X cause Y? Is A better than B? Is C associated with D?
Slide 17

A hypothesis must be falsifiable

Falsifiable
"Treated nets reduce malaria infections"
Evidence can speak to the claim
Not falsifiable
"Bed nets are helpful for malaria"
Helpful how? Under what conditions?
Slide 18

Good hypotheses don't emerge from thin air

Theory tells you what to expect, and why
Malaria is transmitted by mosquitoes; insecticides kill mosquitoes
And dead mosquitoes can't transmit disease
Without theory, a hypothesis is just a guess
Slide 19
In Closing

You now have the building blocks for designing a study

A research problem, a learning goal, a research question
And — when appropriate — a hypothesis grounded in theory
A well-crafted question is only the beginning
Next: searching the literature

From question to hypothesis

Slide 1You have a research problem and you know your learning goal. This video turns those into a question you can answer.
Leary, 2012

A good research question is answerable

It addresses a research problem — a gap in our knowledge
'Answerable' does not mean easy to answer
Just possible to answer
Slide 2A good research question addresses a research problem, a gap in our knowledge, and is answerable. Answerable does not mean easy to answer, just possible to answer.

"Do mosquitoes have an afterlife?"

This represents a gap in our knowledge
But we don't have any empirical means for finding an answer
A fine question to pose to my kids; a poor research question
Slide 3The question, do mosquitoes have an afterlife, represents a gap in our knowledge, but we don't have any empirical means for finding an answer. It's an interesting question to pose to my kids to probe their imagination, but it's a poor research question, because it's not answerable today.

FINER is a checklist for a question you already have

Feasible · Interesting · Novel · Ethical · Relevant
Writing good research questions takes practice
Use this to evaluate the ones you've written
Slide 4Writing good research questions takes practice. Here are two acronyms to help you get started: FINER and PICO. FINER stands for Feasible, Interesting, Novel, Ethical, and Relevant. Use this checklist to evaluate your research questions.

Feasible

Some questions take too long, cost too much, or need too many participants
Others demand skills or equipment that you do not have
A good question is feasible for YOU, with the resources at your disposal
Slide 5Feasible. Some research questions will take a long time to answer, cost too much, require too many participants, demand skills or equipment that you do not have, or will be too complex to implement. A good research question is not just answerable, it's feasible for YOU to answer it with the resources currently at your disposal.

Interesting, and Novel

Without an interesting question, you won't get funding
Without sustained interest, you might not finish — and timelines are long
Replication matters, but most funding goes to questions that fill a gap
Slide 6Interesting. Research requires funding and effort. Without an interesting question, you won't get funding. Without sustained interest in answering the question, you might not finish the work, and global health research tends to have long timelines. Novel. Replication is an important part of science, but the majority of global health funding goes to research that asks new and interesting questions, so you should prioritize answering questions that fill a gap in our knowledge.

Ethical, and Relevant

"Don't be evil" is a minimum bar for research with human subjects
You are responsible for shielding participants from harm
And the answer should move your field forward
Slide 7Ethical. Google's motto used to be, don't be evil. This is a minimum bar for research with human subjects. You have a responsibility to ensure that the questions you ask and the methods you employ in search of answers shield participants from harm. And Relevant. In addition to being interesting, a research question should be relevant to science and society. The answer should move your field forward. Making that determination requires a thorough review of the literature and conversations with senior colleagues.

PICO

P — Patient, Population, or Problem
I — Intervention, Prognostic Factor, or Exposure
C — Comparison
O — Outcome
Slide 8The second acronym is PICO. It stands for Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome. Let's use it to develop a research question about the efficacy of mosquito bed nets in preventing malaria.
P — Population or Problem

Define the target population, or the problem to be solved

I like to include both
Malaria infections — the problem
Among children under 5 around the Lake Victoria basin in Kenya
Slide 9P. Start by defining the target population, or the problem that needs solving. I like to include both. For instance, we might ask a question about malaria infections, the problem, among children under 5 years of age living around the Lake Victoria basin in Kenya, the population.
I — Intervention or Exposure

Provision of insecticide-treated bed nets

Outside a trial, this could be an exposure that raises risk, such as travel to a malaria endemic region
It could also be a prognostic factor that predicts mortality in severe cases
Slide 10I. This can refer to an intervention, an exposure, or a prognostic factor. An example of an intervention for preventing malaria infection is the provision of insecticide-treated bed nets. If you're not conducting an intervention trial, you might instead be interested in an exposure that increases the risk of an outcome, such as traveling to a malaria endemic region. Or a prognostic factor that predicts mortality, such as neurological dysfunction in severe cases of malaria.
C — Comparison

The comparator is a critical aspect of your question

Bed nets compared to another intervention, such as indoor spraying?
Treated bed nets compared to untreated nets? Nets compared to nothing?
Or a descriptive question, with no comparator at all
Slide 11C. The choice of a comparator is a critical aspect of your research question. Are you interested in comparing bed nets to another intervention, such as indoor spraying? Comparing insecticide treated bed nets to untreated bed nets? Bed nets compared to nothing? Or maybe your research question is descriptive and has no comparator. For this example, let's say that we're interested in the effect of treated bed nets on the outcome compared to untreated nets.
O — Outcome

Outcomes are the specific targets of our investigation

Here, parasitaemia
The presence of malaria parasites in the blood
Slide 12O. Outcomes are the specific targets of our investigation. For instance, we might be interested in estimating the impact of insecticide treated bed nets on parasitaemia, the presence of malaria parasites in the blood.

Four elements, combined into a single research question

P — children under 5 around the Lake Victoria basin in Kenya
I and C — insecticide-treated nets versus untreated nets
O — preventing parasitaemia
PICO works beautifully for intervention questions — the book has others
Slide 13We can combine these elements into a single research question. Among children under 5 years of age living around the Lake Victoria basin in Kenya, are insecticide-treated mosquito nets more effective than untreated nets at preventing parasitaemia? PICO works beautifully for intervention questions, but not every research question fits this mold, and the chapter has alternative frameworks for other types of questions.

A hypothesis is a tentative explanation or prediction

It can be tested with data
In its simplest form, it states what you expect to find
"Insecticide-treated bed nets reduce malaria infection rates in children under five"
Slide 14Once you have a research question, you might be tempted to jump straight to hypothesis testing. But let's slow down and think about what a hypothesis actually is, and whether you need one. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation or prediction that can be tested with data. In its simplest form, a hypothesis states what you expect to find. For example: insecticide-treated bed nets reduce malaria infection rates in children under five compared to untreated nets. That's a testable claim. You could design a study to gather evidence for or against it.

Not all research requires a hypothesis

Descriptive studies often don't have one — they characterize what exists
Qualitative research frequently generates hypotheses rather than testing them
Exploratory work looks for patterns without preconceived expectations
Slide 15But here's something that surprises many students. Not all research requires a hypothesis. Descriptive studies often don't have one; they aim to characterize what exists, not to test a prediction. Qualitative research frequently generates hypotheses rather than testing them. And exploratory work, by definition, is looking for patterns without preconceived expectations.

So when do you need one?

When your goal is causal inference
When you're testing a specific prediction derived from theory
Or when you want to examine an association
Does X cause Y? Is A better than B? Is C associated with D?
Slide 16So when do you need a hypothesis? Generally, when your goal is causal inference, when you're testing a specific prediction derived from theory, or when you want to examine an association. If you're asking, does X cause Y? Is treatment A better than treatment B? Is exposure C associated with outcome D? Then you should have a hypothesis.

A hypothesis must be falsifiable

Falsifiable
"Treated nets reduce malaria infections"
Evidence can speak to the claim
Not falsifiable
"Bed nets are helpful for malaria"
Helpful how? Under what conditions?
Slide 17A hypothesis isn't just any prediction. It must be falsifiable. This means it must be possible, at least in principle, to find evidence that would prove it wrong. Consider two statements. Insecticide-treated bed nets reduce malaria infections. And, bed nets are helpful for malaria prevention. The first is falsifiable. We can design a study, collect data, and potentially find that treated nets don't reduce infections, or that they do. Either way, the evidence speaks to the claim. The second is too vague to test: helpful how? Reduce infections? Reduce severe disease? Reduce vector bites? Under what conditions? Over what timeframe? So when you develop a hypothesis, ask yourself: what evidence would convince me I'm wrong? If you can't answer that question, you don't have a scientific hypothesis.

Good hypotheses don't emerge from thin air

Theory tells you what to expect, and why
Malaria is transmitted by mosquitoes; insecticides kill mosquitoes
And dead mosquitoes can't transmit disease
Without theory, a hypothesis is just a guess
Slide 18Good hypotheses don't emerge from thin air. They're grounded in theory, an explanation of how and why things work the way they do. Theory tells you what to expect and why. Consider the bed net example. Why would we expect insecticide-treated nets to reduce malaria more than untreated nets? Because malaria is transmitted by mosquitoes, insecticides kill mosquitoes, and dead mosquitoes can't transmit disease. This causal chain gives us reason to believe the hypothesis is plausible. It also helps us understand what we're really testing: not just whether treated nets work, but whether the mechanism we've proposed produces the expected outcome. So when you develop a hypothesis, ask yourself: what's the theory behind this prediction? If you can't articulate one, you might be fishing for results rather than testing a meaningful claim.
In Closing

You now have the building blocks for designing a study

A research problem, a learning goal, a research question
And — when appropriate — a hypothesis grounded in theory
A well-crafted question is only the beginning
Next: searching the literature
Slide 19Remember that terrifying moment when a mentor asks, what are your ideas? You now have a framework for answering that question. No need to hyperventilate. Good ideas rarely arrive as eureka moments; they emerge slowly, through exposure and connection, as you explore the adjacent possible. You now have the building blocks for designing a study: a research problem, a learning goal, a research question, and, when appropriate, a hypothesis grounded in theory. But a well-crafted question is only the beginning. In the chapters that follow, we'll turn these ideas into action, searching the literature, designing studies, collecting data, and making sense of what we find.